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Think Tank 1110am Global Stock Plummet

Jun 27, 2016|

Global stocks plummet...and U.S. stocks closed down more than 600 points...reacting to Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union.  Will we see a market correction early next week or anytime soon?   What’s the short-term and long-term impact on Great Britain, the European Union, the world market, the U.S....and your 401k?  We’ll look at the DOWNside & the possible UPside of historic event.  And, on the political scene, does BreEXIT play into the hands of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.  Will the economic reaction to Britain’s unexpected vote to depart from the European Union propel rebellion in America & create a surge for Trump...or ignite fear that drives more voters toward Hillary?   This hours guest: Dalibor Rohac - Research Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies with American Enterprise Institute Professor Erik Jones - John Hopkins University European studies in Oxford, England…Professor of Euorpean studies and International Political Economy and has written several books on the EU Union.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

All right we're gonna talk about it do you and English. Have decided they're leaving the European Union I think. When the first occurred everything I read some of the world is going to do is send. Then it was one old wood deserves content more all men could be some pinging you in the mean time but it's hard ago. And now we've got to those current cruised they controlled the EU would talk and by giving Britain a chance to reconsider. Its decision to quit the EU and hearing Scotland saying. They've they've made tried to stop in June for leaving the EU. So thankfully we can own words to turned to be experts. Maria Abdullah bore roll hall. Senior fellow foreign policy studies. With the American Enterprise Institute dull board thank you for calling him I appreciated straw. Greater risk here. Oh both wars specific portions. Board what are your thoughts what are UC what do you think. The referendum and it's the result came to produce most of the opinion Apple's. Are even developing markets were predicting gate safely be truthful to remain campaign. And I think. The surprise. That the the wrong that it did that the results and position on it. Loose also in many ways they talk to do at least compete in the UK is leaders Michael called the results and all right so. Opera I essentially no two. Four and older the exit out of the EU and the Soviet troops on goal of the call also. Are couple days there have been no credible plan proposed by the chief complaint on the hull. The UK is going to proceed as a result of the UK now finds itself in the midst of a political crisis could prove difficult salute to spot the we don't leave he does. And did the ongoing insurgency and to leave policy. But link has plunged to those logos and possibility is. And then everything beats you and so far I think promises. That any longer and potentially acrimonious. People coming to the Donovan knew it was coming on the most stress. Don't economically and politically and from from deal outside with the rise of revisionist Russia no that's more than. Indignities. Unfortunately I think that is going to shift the strategic attention known vulnerability away from from all these pressing matters to Waltz. Expected disputes over market access and so forth. It and didn't I've read that those that two of them were leading the league campaign. The one you talked about that that doesn't have any plans for the accident one of the things they hit play and our problem was that he doubling up on public health care. And they are already reversing that. Saying there are relief sure they can do that so isn't some of the things they did promise now there backtrack. What did you see in the local look look of the back pedaling in the way. And over the last couple days so one problem is of little hook the 350. Millions possibly you can supposedly substitute. To the EU budget problems. At that number those completely invented did not take into consideration the British rebates democracy to Russia. Negotiated back in the 1980s. Which is essentially. Decreases the the UK contribution. To something like 220. Million pounds. Of the command and if you take into consideration to monitor the use to inspect the UK. And respond to various programs that the net contribution becomes an even more so there really is no. 350. Billion. To be spent a note is that in the years of doubt the promises. Into cultural integration or already read taking off. A full control over. All the UK. You can legislation commandos. I think also. Somewhere in there and durable fault pure fantasy because if you look at other countries that indeed Europe McDonald's spot of the EU. Under heaven the arrangement. Providing them actually the tax system the single market this country's original Leo Switzerland have to accept free movement of people as well. And essentially applies the bulk of European legislation. Did the media and nod toward any of this out. During the campaign. We'll follow the media did. But on the part of our especially the British public press moos it was a really key in depressed. Present him either case full force for BP defaults. In fact there was through the to a incomes of four of public resonance. Wolf wolf wolf wolf wolf wolf there's there's got to me it's the fact it's very much. As this the UK much leg. And terrorist and protests and duty is to gospels structural territory and in politics and in fact. And and reason. To move freely carry the same way this as they might have before. One of them things are red. Some of par or as a B and branched. And in Germany we're saying okay ridden once on let's get them out very quickly. So regroup and whatever they're paying news and in takeoff and didn't. But today as I read in the beginning. A bold Brussels. And Berlin and presents. Or finger in bed giving Britney a chance to reconsider. Its decision to quit. And number one do you think there's any chance of being you know the referendum. And if so is there if he thought as to what the outcome would be the stuff. I think that solve this purely hypothetical at this they doubled and drove for and can be controlled. Bomb. I'm. Amanda Amanda fought so I think there that there has been any decision made stepped up big particularly tech have to take into consideration the real question now is. The bill that dooms all of bricks that would is going to be an amicable. Friendly split that's pretty some of deposits in the UK in the continent. Whether it's on trade don't strategic issues in the UK has played the hidden important leadership growth in Europe. In many ways and I think it's an overlook of interest that you can continue to do that. On and I hope that quota at to have prevailed under the innocence of vindictiveness. Of the might have perhaps. He's in the post few days from from some of the EU leaders. I'm just that some sort of amicable. A solution can be can be ripped out that provides do you give it some of the elements. Awful awful for safe access to the single market that a man gives it some role in forming. In shaping European discussion because it's mr. tickle me I think it's due to a full fledged U membership. William if all of that occurs. Wouldn't that take years. 123. Years. It will come into formal process of withdrawal from the European Union. As it is defined in the European treaties is supposed to take two years. And the UK has not started that process yet. But I want to dust of the of the essentially picking Coca through the through the source of the force. Or BX system to act quickly are. That's that it is still a bit of an experiment nobody has trotted. Tribe and things like this before from. Many neatly so really complex and could legislation. Trade relationships. The regulatory. Harmonization that. Do these things have taken decades to to put in place. And this little naive. I DR that this may be some of the supporters of the beast compared that could produce express to Boston and has suddenly become liberated from from. For you legislation and then you control. Our. I think you'll you'll see probably disappointed different aspects of patient is going through these longer. And if the Indians can take two or three years. If Serbs gun bees from real bad things that are per theirs they're conceding that at the current wild they're negotiating. They're pretty good chance that the negotiations. Wu bin didn't fold in in new. Form that saw around the problems that are there. In order to solve it and couldn't we come out the of the room may be. Either virtually the same way or a little bit better. Perhaps but there is also is the real risk that it oldest to discourage other countries to full value community compo. You will try to play horrible that the UK. And try to do in the way punishment for leaving the European Union and its would be a promise of it really recruitment is being so. People and will potentially plunged as politically Vick into a recession and I think it was a full social I mean that consequences even in the form of fostering. Because the populist or nationalist movements haven't been delayed these movements are responsible for the failure of the EU to deliver prosperity and economic growth. If you make matters worse bon. Policy decisions I have nothing to those whose new remote. No not react to that kindly. Aren't you let me take a break here when we come back their site home. That a concern and then the EU EU. Could suffer even more than Britain. In fact we got to of these billionaire and then Q George shores saying. They use heading forward he deuce or lead disintegration. Talk about that a more come around next Dublin Tokyo. Well you've probably heard by know Britain halves declared independence. From the EU who and it's getting very good currency markets in Britain where he down. I'm in checked out hours but I think this morning we're open. We were down over 200 points Friday was a little over 600. One of these concerns from some of these columns drug Togo was reading a landslide. Is concerned for the EU's future even more than Britain. We have bug Dell bore poker with a a robot book Rula what the a research fellow foreign policies studied with the American Enterprise Institute. What are what are your thoughts. Could the EU com out of its worst in Britain. I think there's real risk all of the US armed reveling in the second notable. The United States has been committed to any group that's hold free and at peace. I think for all of the use problems whether it be rules those. Or the refugee crisis that we saw Russia. The achievements of European integration are real and Europe is more open. More economically free more democratic than at any point it is history and there is a real risks. Did you could example of the fall of the other countries. There are of course a referendum on in places such as strong or the Netherlands. Or in central and Eastern Europe. And an undue risk therefore is that. That is the other countries leaving. And undo some other countries might. No be able to prosper outside of the EU and the way that the UK's two in the cabinet. These can be far and ultimate patrolled the economic stimulus to that you are about to see. But the two singles a small. Youngest democracies of Europe and especially those that have been great from the shackles of communism took five years ago for them. And used functional and prosperous and those around you they met over existential necessity a bit like bill and up. Opt in the very and embrace before the Russian debt. More to or the concerns for America at that point you just mentioned brought certain that I've got to beat. One of the big moon and so what results. What do you. The good equipment to Europe. Has been a centerpiece of US foreign policy for full full force for many decades. And therefore I think what was happening in the UK and in the opinion matters a great deal to to America. You know who they think awful awful NATO on the line is that. That is that a problem separate from from the European Union but but that's overlapping memberships and could do EU countries are also members of NATO. And hope to imagine that the UK and the rest of the EU goes through different. This Spain's. And bitter approaches of people's that's going to facility erodes trust between countries that group to leave the local. Bids are often based on that's going to have an impact on the functioning of NATO and its credibility. With the ability to deter foreign threats. And momentum from from that perspective it's it's been very directly and in the US interest to encourage. The breakup. Which is about to happen to be. And smooth the process as friend BS especially possible. It immigration. Wars was mentioned many times is one of the reasons the U leave movement wanted to leave. It in the rest of the EU have been opened border. Policy. How does England. Closed their borders. And still maintain doing business would the EU. Would that you United Kingdom was and still live in an. In they have very very specific position relative to the rest of the EU wouldn't it comes to immigration and boulders. Much of the European continent. This problem Sokol trained in the area which is this area of all sports less bold in less trouble which looks very much like. Think Charlie you have between American states and an Indian the United States on the possible control over the controls and the problem for us. The DL horrible bill for the Shanken realist. I was supposed to look. Protected properly and there was no common foreign policy and as a result the other one million. Deciding because in the run in Europe Austria. Our but the BUK. Essentially untouched far this doesn't by the control immigration. The UK. It didn't. First it was an island nation but it also. Controls until Wimbledon so when you arrived in the case from the European Union you go to the possible control. How would you wanted to do you national over the coming from that country. System builder than and actually do you paper and do a or 6000 U national denied him entry to the United Kingdom I don't national security of public health grounds of the UK infect. Have had control its own borders and who continue to have its where that they may know he's the European Union's. They'll more good thing because you understand the complicated subject a little bit better thank you for the time India for entities. Thank you very much indeed for me I covered that we'll talk to weigh up professor John Hopkins you know heard from the you're being so it is in the Oxford England say whoops. So Britain declares independence from the UK. Good idea are very bad idea and four home. It would Britain that. At least according to some of their leaders. They brought the Euro could be EU. They say will was holding them back quarry used in Britain. Want to talk about things could get very bad and there's some experts who have sued the EU. Could suffer even more than Burton but they both could be in crow. Of this morning Joseph Borg to Wall Street Journal article that European leaders the very ones. That I thing. Land Friday over the weekend and we're talking about hey they're more about whether a government as soon as week in and word of push for. And now we're taught her about Brussels and Berlin. Suggests having given Britain a chance to reconsider. Its decision to quit. When ever these kind of complicated subject hip weren't very elected to get the true experts. Where professor or Joseph Johns Hopkins University European studies in Oxford England. Propel Shura. International political economy and has written several books on the EU union professor. Thank you so much for calling in. Here are able reading all these different opinions and solemn visits and told doom gloom and of Tuesday. Going to be paying and they won't get over to a boarding used to. Well odd I would have to Altman doom and gloom side I think the people who voted for this decision have. Really done something that can hurt their country pork. Quite a long time in not just their country as you mentioned your introduction. The rest of Europe is gonna operas well 13 of so many different ways that can happen that people didn't realize and they took the decision. I. Well. Right now thanks stocks in London are down about 30%. We lost 20% of the value shares. In banks and Italy on Friday in another ten to 12% today. Now that important because these banks unlike a bank in the United States are still suffering from the crowd at. They need to be recapitalize the vacant land into the private sector and yet there's this started up again. And add these banks are taken. Stock exchanges their ability to land is being constrained. And we're gonna be a slowdown in European economic performance we're gonna it yet big reception. In the United Kingdom. In these things are all interconnected. Everything I wrote Ted London have been for a very long time. World's largest exporter of financial services number mourners that true number two. Could that change and did does its board board does that mean. It absolutely true. Interestingly. British chose to specialize in financial services. And seeing world leading industry if you wanted to change change or trade and currency for example. So they pull up in London. In born currencies like the Euro which is the current unit used in the European Union. And Ian. What can happen now that their ability to sell or put them in Europe is going to be constrain what has bank. Well automatically have the right to do that in the European Union. In Europe and in your beat them at the European central. Which as responsible. As that they want to make sure that all of those Euro trade actually equate. We've been there your diction which got me in London and Britain in the market either so those will be two big blows. To the financial services industry in the UK. The U extended negotiations. When they start occurring. Is Canada a rule or three Euro or do you rule and if it does take that long couldn't things change and in other words are you going through there and negotiations. And the bad stuff starts happening. Kid you were adjusted Google long to minimized. The pain in that app through the believing it's official. It's going to be very complicated because that thing. British people wanted to get away from. The rule that they say should not be Apple's shouldn't that be dated Monday. In in the migration of people across Europe of that is what is perceived to be the problem inside you. I built purpose things that they won't be able to negotiations that they wanna keep any relationship. Or that your you'd rules. And among those rules are out there are free movement of people if they get that. Then there are gonna believe the European Union altogether and try to come up with some new. Arrangement and that's gonna take a lot longer than that two years. In the existing procedures to negotiate where they're going to be. I think that like they were gonna get out of this now. The negotiations between Britain and Europe has very small other question as well to amber if we could talk about that where. We will look sick girl a break and please don't leave for it's extraordinary. We get to both talked somebody like Q would this common knowledge for culture or drones. John Hopkins university Oxford England the authors several people told me he EU union. Dubbed a Pia. Britain has elected to the EU EU in love playing good decision. That could affect the world. We're above prepares sir are joined with the show and Hopkins university European studies. In the Oxford England also the author of several books on the huge union. A professor I lived and rub you right to point you were getting ready to explain something to me. Can talk about whether they can do it do over on debt because referendum outcome came as such a huge surprise to so many people. Then a lot of people and asking if there's anyway they could reverse that outcome would stay in the European Union. In the light finger all bay will not have another referendum on the same question I think that your clear. The only way they can get around it would be get rid of their government in is all there parliament and call early elections. And it take an early elections with them parties that campaign. On changing the result that like you wade overturned. The popular vote to lead the European Union in the first place but but. Barring the possibility and it is a remote. I think we're stuck with this situation where Britain leaving EU these New York medium term future. In Scotland and tried to stop Britain. Well Scotland can stop Britain because all of those people. Around them beat the actual. Leaving it an act of parliament said the parliament would have to. Move legislation. Overturned the legislation brought him into the European institution. In the first place. Now as part of the approval of that legislation it would have to go to the Scottish assembly in the Scottish assembly of the Scottish Parliament. Could could decide it wants to veto. What being decided by the parliament Westminster. That would create a constitutional. Crisis. Unprecedented. Dimensions in the United Kingdom. In could be one. Several ways that lead to the split up of the countries that Scotland becomes. Its own country instead of being part of the United Kingdom percent. What do you think the chances of that happening Scotland. Racially voter in order I think was small margin decided not to separate. But everything a re doing number of the Scottish. Leaders feel like Britain deserted him by leaving the EU. What do you think the chances of that happening. Well I think it does certainly increased in the last Scottish referendum on independence the vote to remain in the United Kingdom would strip people war. Took 46. They were safely. Inside view here but. Immediately that in this election and a Scottish Parliament then in the in the election of Scotland represented that to the British parliament. The nationalist party won just about every so yeah now the same people who won independence. Or in control and Wednesday had there referendum. On the United Kingdom every single constituent in Scotland showed support for remaining in the use today which is a big contrast what happened. In England's other arguments that you could make. That Scotland would be better off leaving the United Kingdom and going into the year in huge and certainly what Nicklaus sturgeon. Leader of the Scottish National Party is trying to may. George Soros. And hedge fund and federal added a new way and billionaire. He was quoted the end. Things was baron said. European Union is heading for deuce orderly dues immigration. Your thoughts. There that the possibility of that. People are really happy in Europe there are not so unhappy with the European Union there goes on because of financial crisis that. Started to doubt that any part of your still has not and nine years in the right. The people are clustered in one of these some kind of a change and in boating to leave the European Union is one way. Change we've seen not just as well in the United Kingdom. But reference and other countries for example the Netherlands referendum that winning gain European Union membership but the epic. And so the continuing struggle along those lines. Mon ten years old. British acts that crop that continues. We're part of the question. If if the EU who would do some glory if Britain got a new trouble in particular financial trouble. What happens in the aid to what happened trial lives isn't offered to prudent what happened. Tora L that are taken of at least some would call outs and some apply and emily's. I think at exactly the right questions from the standpoint of the United States this is all very bad news. You have to understand NATO would be very important organization. NATO can only do ranger I think it's very much. Military oriented. And so you organize economic sanctions like economic sanctions. Russia offered ample. You need to have an economic organization that of the EU offers without that the United States doesn't have a partner on the side of the Atlantic. Professor Jones are extraordinarily. Low IQ and or poured Jabil to talk to use certainly emerged in. Complicated subject a little bit better thank you with the tellem have agreed week. Thank you perhaps mean you have a great week to. It's and it's not just made to go down there may be this whose temper it below 600 points plugs on Dell Friday. Today we're down to do more than that now a 106 NASDAQ. 38 left some big thing. In pursuing time. Well codes like so far. When we go through via a president and were raised from choosing between them and Satan. Who played the Paltrow and images of the two candidates or worst for it and he presidential nominee in the house. Quarter century. We'll be delicate about ms. Clinton and mr. trump coming objects or witness. And now.